Friday, August 16, 2019

Hong Kong affect its future economy Essay

This research project seeks to bring out the effects of the Hong Kong population structure on the future economy of Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a booming economy being one of the major financial districts of the South Asian region and its changing population structure has a lot to do with its workforce and in turn affects its working culture and present and future economic structure as well. Research Question: The research question for this project seek to study how or to what extent the population structure a regards to age and gender or social characteristics of the population tend to affect the present and future economy of Hong Kong. So there are two parts to this research project – the first part analyzes the population structure of Hong Kong with regards to the age and gender or social status and the second part brings out the economic structure of Hong Kong from its past to present changes and the future of Hong Kong economy in a more globalized world and the impact of global markets on the financial centre of Asia. The focused research question in this case brings out several dimension of the study as through the analysis of the qualitative and quantitative dimensions, the subjective and objective aspects of the study. The impact of the changes in population structure on the economy could be understood on the basis of changing population numbers and percentages quantitatively and the socioeconomic changes as understood qualitatively. The research question essentially focuses on the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of the research as it seeks to bring out the impact of population change in economic structure of Hong Kong in a descriptive manner and in accordance with socioeconomic changes, as in influence of wage, gender, age gaps and changes etc an also the direct statistical values and correlations between population and economic structures in terms of numbers and statistical values. The research question on the extent to which population structure affects the Hong Kong economy thus brings out this ‘extent’ in terms of numbers or real values as also in terms of description of changes in Hong Kong as what happens qualitatively when the population structure changes and what is the impact on the economy from a descriptive point of view. Like for example this can be related to lack of high living standards, poor health conditions of the elderly. These would be qualitative dimensions of the research and the values or percentages of changing population and simultaneously changing economy would be the quantitative aspects of research. These two methods are discussed further in the methodology section as given below. Background/Literature Review: A brief literature review is provided here and brings out the main points of research articles as published in journals and obtained from ingentaconnect or sciencedirect or JSTOR. The literature review is on the Hong Kong population and economic structure and articles published and written on these issues showing the impact of an ageing population on Hong Kong’s economy and job prospects and on the industries in Hong Kong as influenced by a global economy and ageing population. In this literature review section a study by Leigh (2006), a research article by Chui published 2003 and another by Fan and Lui (2003) have been selected. Leigh’s study shows the direct impact of ageing on Hong Kong’s economy, fiscal changes and living standards. Chui shows how the ageing population face problems of survival and housing in a fast paced Hong Kong economy and Fan and Lui talk of gender and wage gap in Hong Kong’s population that could redefine economic changes and structure. The studies chosen here highlight the qualitative aspects of the impact of ageing and gender changes in population or demography on the economic structure of Hong Kong. The participation of women has also increased significantly necessitating needs of study of the impact of gender on Hong Kong’s economy and how women’s participation in the workplace can change things for the economy. In a research article on the population structure of Hong Kong, Leigh (2006) has suggested that Hong Kong SAR’s population has been aging rapidly and aging could adversely affect the growth and living standards of people in Hong Kong. There has to be some change in economic and administrative policies in keeping with the aging or changing population according to the article. There is a high labor and productivity growth with increased migration of younger skilled workers from Chinese mainland in Hong Kong mainly due to Hong Kong’s booming economy and although this attenuates the economic impact of aging, there is no full offset of the impact of aging population on the economic structure of Hong Kong. According to Leigh, aging puts considerable pressure on public finances particularly as with aging there is also rising health costs that directly affect government spending. There are relatively fewer options that government has and opportunities to implement polices on this are also limited that could lessen the impact of aging on the governance and structure as demographic effects would start setting in by 2015 when the ratio of working population would peak. The Hong Kong SAR authorities have been focused on administrative and governance policies that would limit or reduce the fiscal impact of aging and they have also provided continued expenditure restraint on reform of health care financing with private health insurance systems, along with tax reforms and non age sensitive areas (Leigh, 2006). Considering the gradual ageing problem of Hong Kong, Chui (2001) suggest that Hong Kong as one of the Four Dragons of Asia is faced with the gradual ageing problem that seems to have affected the urban fabric of the city as also the general population. However one of the regions in which Hong Kong seems to be booming along with the economy is property development as Hong Kong is mainly based on a property led economy and the government as well as private and public property developers have been launching redevelopment projects for setting up new structures in Hong Kong. However as Chui points out the special needs problems of elderly people have not been attended to and most of Hong Kong’s elderly people are poor physically, financially and socially. However with urban renewal and changes, the elderly people are at disadvantage and face threats to their survival as they are not in a position to cope with the restructuring changes in Hong Kong’s fast paced urban development projects. There has also been a gradual weakening of the respect to Chinese traditional values and culture as for the respect given to the elderly and this along with nuclearization of families have added to the problems of the elderly. Chui writes that government housing policies in Hong Kong should emphasize on community care and ageing in place and help in solving housing problems and needs of the elderly. The study shows the plight of older people in Hong Kong, a booming economy in the South Asian region and a contrasting fate of the elderly people. The gender gap in wages has been analyzed by some researchers and the trend shows a narrowing gender gap in wages. According to Fan and Lui (2003), the narrowing gender gap may be related to women’s advantages compared with earlier times especially women’s changing positions at the workplace. Gender gap is found as smaller in occupations and industries that are less dependent on physical labour as men are more suitable for physically rigorous work. This shows that when an economy transforms from a manufacturing or production oriented approach to a more service oriented one, women’s productivity would be recognized an with increased women’s participation in service based economies, the gender gap on the basis of wage or participation at the workplace also decreases. A 1% random subsample was used in this study for two population censuses and the results of the experiment also support empirical results. Methodology The methodology to be used for this study will be both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative and quantitative data would be primarily available from the internet and research journal databases and journal articles will be selected along with studies by the Hong Kong government as based on the economic indicators, as well as statistical and other government reports on the population and GDP, GNP and labor or prices. Of course in this section we highlight the importance of theory and practice and differentiate between the theories and the practical implications of research and the use of methodology to explain these two features. The theories that will be dealt with will be economic theories and changes in the global economy along with changes in the Hong Kong economic structure. The practical implications here would be changes in the population structure statistically obtained and otherwise and population changes as indicated in journal articles that deal with ageing and its associated problems in Hong Kong. The theories and practice of the economic and population changes in Hong Kong will be obtained from journal articles selected from journal databases and these articles are obtained by using search terms such as ‘Hong Kong economy’, ‘Hong Kong population, ‘Ageing population, ‘South Asian Economy’, ‘Economic structure of Hong Kong, Population of Hong Kong, ‘Elderly in Hong Kong, ‘Employment in Hong Kong and Economy’ etc. As indicated in the later part of the study, the government’s reports on the economic changes and population changes have been given here and the results can be used to show the trends and the analysis can be done quantitatively and qualitatively to show the changes in population in terms of age, gender and wages or social status. In fact wage structure shows changes in economic conditions of the major part of population and results could be drawn to show how economy and wages would be related in turn to gender and age and the overall impact this has on the Hong Kong’s population structure could be drawn in the analysis and interpretation section of the results. The different possible methodological frameworks would be the qualitative methodology and the quantitative methodology. Qualitative methodology is about understanding the more qualitative or subjective aspects of the population and delineating the attributes or the characteristics of job changes, economic structure and population structure in Hong Kong. Quantitative methodology is about showing statistical tables and values and suggests the population and economic structural changes in terms of values or numbers as given in statistical tables. The impact of old age or ageing population on the economy as discussed qualitatively by researchers would form part of the study using journal articles and descriptions of the situation as given by researchers in articles and published papers as would be the quantitative aspects that are given in published reports and statistical tables giving values or numbers that define the changes in Hong Kong’s social, demographic and economic structure quantitatively in terms of values, statistics and numbers. A snapshot of the qualitative and quantitative primary data as would be used in the research study is given below and from some of the research papers as used in the literature review and the reports published by the Hong Kong government, the primary data in terms of tables or published research reports will be chosen and analyzed for the purposes of this study. The published articles or papers in journals as selected from ingenta, sciencedirect, JSTOR or other such databases thus provide the basis for qualitative primary data and the published research reports as available from Hong Kong government sites showing statistical analysis of population and economic structure form the more quantiatve aspects of this study and a balance of quantitative and qualitative methods will be considered for analysis of this research study. Social science research is largely based on ontological and epistemological propositions that help to understand consumer behavior and in this case population structure and government approach to population and how it affects Hong Kong economy in general. From the ontological point of view any phenomena could be analyzed objectively using economic data and in this case the economic structure of Hong Kong could be comparatively objectively analyzed considering other developed or developing economies and the effects of population on economy. The epistemological approach to methodology emphasizes on people’s perspectives and the subjective or qualitative aspects of research as already indicated. Positivistic and Interpretive theories in social science research focus on scientific data (as in positivism) in which experimental findings are of prime importance and interpretive analysis in which drawing out qualitative aspects and viewpoints of the researcher would be more important. The epistemological, interpretive positions are closer to qualitative methodology and the positivistic, ontological philosophies are akin to quantitative methodology as used in any research project. The Table below provides the population structure of Hong Kong by age and sex and as seen from the initial study of 2007 population growth and structure, 3. 9% of the population is above 60 years of age, 3. 4% of the population is above 65 or 70 years of age, 2. 7% of the population reaches above 75 year limit and 1. 7% of the population crosses the 80 year old mark. 1. 4% of the population is above 85 years. This suggests that a significant portion of the population is an aged population in Hong Kong and this is a change from 2006 in which the 60 year old population was at 3. 7% and above 75 year olds was at 2. 6% and above 85 year olds was at 1. 3%. The charts show that thee has been a slight yet significant increase in aging population of Hong Kong and considerable decrease in the young population as seen from the population data of 2006-2007. If data is attained over a period of last 10 years this aging population trend will however become more prominent and this will be elaborated in the methodology and data collection section of the research. This research table thus forms part of the resources that we use as data for our study on the effects of population on economic structure.

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